Tesla went nowhere for six years, then rose about 16 times. BRAC Bank’s shares are up 163% in three years, it is one of the strongest banks in a stressed sector — and it owns 51% of Bangladesh’s biggest fintech. On the numbers, the market still seems to be paying very little for the bank itself.

By Wasif Zaman, DMD, Mika Securities · 14 October 2026 · 12 min read

Great investments rarely look great at the moment you can buy them cheaply. They look boring, stuck, or misunderstood. The investors who win are usually the ones who did their homework early and then had the patience to wait while everyone else lost interest.

This article looks at two stories side by side: Tesla in the United States between 2014 and 2020, and BRAC Bank’s ownership of bKash here in Bangladesh today. One is history. The other is still unfolding on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

01Tesla, 2014–2015: the “dead money” years

In 2014 and 2015 Tesla was a small carmaker selling a few tens of thousands of cars a year, burning cash and widely doubted. Its share price barely moved for years. Many investors gave up and sold.

~50,600Cars delivered by Tesla in 2015
~499,600Cars delivered in 2020 — about 10x more
~$15 → ~$235Year-end share price, 2014 to 2020 (split-adjusted)
~16xGrowth of money invested at end-2014, by end-2020

What changed was not the story — it was the proof. Deliveries grew year after year, the company turned profitable, and in December 2020 Tesla joined the S&P 500. Investors who understood the business in 2014–2015 already had the information. What they needed was patience.

The lesson: a business can be quietly compounding its value for years while its share price sits still. When the market finally recognises it, the re-rating often happens fast — and only investors who already own the shares benefit.
The honest caveat: Tesla came close to serious trouble in 2018–2019 during its production struggles. Hindsight makes it look obvious; it wasn’t. Many “undervalued” stories never re-rate. That is why position size and diversification matter.

02BRAC Bank: a strong bank that has already rewarded patience

Before we get to bKash, look at the bank itself. BRAC Bank has quietly been one of the DSE’s better long-term holdings — and its business numbers explain why.

BRAC Bank share price change

Price change to 13 October 2026; dividends are extra on top

1 year

+11%

3 years

+163%

5 years

+138%

Over the last year BRAC Bank returned 11.1% to shareholders, against 7.5% for Bangladeshi banks overall and −3.1% for the wider market. Since listing, the share price is up more than 1,400%.

Tk 2,251 crRecord 2025 net profit, up 57% — the first local private bank above Tk 2,000 crore
2.27%BRAC Bank’s bad-loan (NPL) ratio, vs above 30% for the banking sector
+27.5%Deposit growth in 2025, vs 11.5% for the industry
30%Dividend for 2025 (15% cash + 15% stock), its highest since listing

Two more facts set it apart. BRAC Bank is described as the only Bangladeshi bank rated internationally by both S&P Global and Moody’s. And its net asset value per share rose from Tk 39.38 to Tk 51.56 in a single year — the kind of steady book-value compounding that long-term investors look for.

Strong in a weak sector: Bangladesh has more than 60 banks, but only a small group are healthy and growing; many others are under Bangladesh Bank restrictions on lending and dividends. With sector-wide bad loans above 30%, BRAC Bank’s 2.27% puts it firmly in the strongest tier.

03bKash: Bangladesh’s quiet compounder

bKash started in 2010 as a joint venture between BRAC Bank and Money in Motion LLC. Fifteen years later it is woven into everyday life — salaries, school fees, shop payments and remittances. And unlike many fintechs worldwide, it is profitable and growing.

8.2 croreVerified registered customers (end-2025)
4.7 croreActive customers, transacting in the last 3 months
Tk 661 crRecord net profit in 2025
+40%Net profit growth in Jan–Mar 2026 (Tk 184 crore)

Who owns bKash

BRAC Bank

51.00%

Money in Motion

16.45%

Alipay (Ant)

14.87%

IFC (World Bank)

10.36%

SoftBank (SVF II)

7.32%

Look at who sits next to BRAC Bank on that list: Alibaba’s payments arm, the World Bank’s investment arm and SoftBank. Some of the most demanding technology investors in the world paid real dollars to own minority slices of bKash. BRAC Bank owns the controlling majority — and a DSE investor can buy into that stake through an ordinary BO account.

04The sum-of-the-parts maths

Here is a simple way to test whether the market is giving BRAC Bank credit for bKash. Value the bKash stake on its own, subtract it from BRAC Bank’s market value, and see what is left for the bank.

Item Basis Value
bKash value “Above $1.2 billion”, per BRAC Bank’s CEO (June 2026) ≈ Tk 14,775 cr
BRAC Bank’s 51% stake 51% × $1.2bn at Tk 123.13/$ ≈ Tk 7,535 cr
BRAC Bank market cap Tk 66.10 per share, 13 Oct 2026 ≈ Tk 15,134 cr
Implied value of the bank alone Market cap minus bKash stake ≈ Tk 7,600 cr

What a BRAC Bank share is really made of

Market value split, using the bKash valuation above

In other words: roughly half of every taka you pay for a BRAC Bank share is backed by its bKash stake alone.

That leftover Tk 7,600 crore has to pay for one of the country’s largest private banks — its loan book, deposit franchise, SME network and branches. BRAC Bank’s total trailing profit is around Tk 2,268 crore. Even after stripping out roughly Tk 337 crore attributable to bKash (51% of its 2025 profit), the market is pricing the core bank at about 4 times its earnings. The whole group trades at 6.7x earnings and 1.3x book value.

Why the gap may exist: bKash is not separately listed, so there is no daily price reminding investors what it is worth. Its profits are consolidated into BRAC Bank’s accounts and blend into “bank earnings”. Value that is not visible on a ticker screen is easy to overlook — just as Tesla’s progress was easy to overlook while the share price stood still.

05Why strong banks will keep getting stronger

When a banking sector is under stress, money does not disappear — it moves. Depositors, businesses and remitters shift towards the institutions they trust. That is exactly what BRAC Bank’s 2025 numbers show: deposits growing at more than twice the industry rate while bad loans stay a fraction of the sector average.

The flywheel

  • Trust attracts cheaper deposits
  • Cheaper funding lets it lend to the best borrowers
  • Better borrowers mean fewer bad loans and higher profit
  • Higher profit builds capital — and more trust

Where the growth comes from

  • Management targets more than 10% market share
  • bKash’s 8 crore customers feed digital banking
  • Over 20 lakh SME entrepreneurs financed so far
  • Foreign trade of $7.12bn — 6–7% of national trade

Meanwhile, weaker banks that cannot lend or pay dividends lose customers, talent and market share every quarter. As the sector consolidates, the gap between the strongest few and the rest is likely to widen — and the strongest few are where the market’s future profits will concentrate.

06The case — and the risks

What could unlock the value

  • bKash profit growth continuing (+40% in Q1 2026)
  • A new funding round or stake sale that sets a fresh, higher price for bKash
  • Any future bKash IPO, which would put a visible market value on the stake
  • BRAC Bank itself growing strongly — Q2 2026 profit rose 90% year-on-year

What could go wrong

  • The $1.2bn figure is management’s view, not a recent transaction price
  • Holding companies usually trade at a discount; it may never fully close
  • Regulation of mobile financial service fees could squeeze bKash margins
  • Competition from Nagad, bank apps and other MFS providers
  • Wider banking-sector stress and asset-quality risk in Bangladesh

07The bigger lesson: long-term equity owners win, cash savers fall behind

Tesla and BRAC Bank are two examples of a pattern that shows up again and again in decades of market data: wealth is built by owning shares and holding them, not by keeping money idle in cash or jumping in and out of the market.

94%of the UK’s ISA millionaires built their wealth in stock-market accounts only; the rest mixed in some cash
91%of 10-year periods since 1899 in which UK shares beat cash (Barclays Equity Gilt Study)
1 in 18 yrsOver 18-year holding periods, cash has beaten shares only once
~22 yrsAverage time a UK ISA millionaire took to reach £1 million — patience, not luck

The cost of jumping out of the market

$10,000 in the S&P 500, January 2005 – December 2024 (J.P. Morgan Asset Management)

Stayed invested

$71,750

Missed 10 best days

$32,871

Missed 60 best days

$4,712

Seven of the 10 best days came within two weeks of one of the 10 worst. Investors who sell in panic usually miss the rebound.

The trader

Over the 20 years to 2024, the average US equity fund investor — buying and selling on emotion — earned 9.24% a year, against 10.35% for simply holding the S&P 500. That gap left the patient holder about 22% richer.

The cash saver

UK cash savings accounts averaged around 1% a year over the past decade, against roughly 9% for stock-market accounts. After inflation, cash quietly loses buying power year after year.

For Bangladeshi investors: the same logic applies at home. Savings certificates and FDRs have their place for safety and liquidity, but over long periods it is ownership of growing businesses — strong banks, leading fintechs, quality companies on the DSE — that compounds wealth. The key is choosing strong businesses and giving them time.

08What this means for a Bangladeshi investor

The Tesla story is not a promise that BRAC Bank’s share price will multiply. It is a reminder of how long-term wealth is usually made: by owning good businesses whose value is growing faster than the market notices, and by being patient enough to still own them when it finally does.

A few practical habits follow from that:

  • Look through the ticker. Ask what a company actually owns — subsidiaries, stakes and assets that may not show up in a simple P/E.
  • Think in years, not days. Re-ratings like Tesla’s came after long, boring stretches. Selling during the boring part is how most investors miss the reward.
  • Size positions sensibly. No single idea should decide your financial future. Diversify across sectors.
  • Review the facts regularly. Track bKash’s quarterly results, any new valuation events and BRAC Bank’s asset quality.

Research smarter. Invest for the long run.

Open a BO account with Mika Securities and trade DSE stocks from your phone with Amar Biniyog. Our team across 26 offices nationwide is here to help.

Sources

  1. bKash ownership, Q1 2026 profit and history: The Business Standard, 13 May 2026
  2. bKash 2025 results, customers and the “above $1.2 billion” valuation comment: Bonik Barta, 7 June 2026
  3. BRAC Bank share price, returns, market cap, P/E, P/B and Q2 2026 profit: Simply Wall St, data as of 13 Oct 2026
  4. BRAC Bank 2025 profit, dividend and NAV: The Financial Express, 27 Apr 2026
  5. BRAC Bank NPL vs sector, deposit growth, ratings, market-share target: The Daily Star, July 2026
  6. SoftBank stake purchase and BRAC Bank holding: The Financial Express, Nov 2021
  7. UK ISA millionaire data: Rathbones / HMRC and Financial Interest
  8. Cost of missing the best days: J.P. Morgan Asset Management research via CNBC
  9. Shares vs cash since 1899: Barclays Equity Gilt Study via Evidence Investor
  10. Investor behaviour gap: DALBAR QAIB 2025 via Lorica Partners
  11. USD/BDT rate of 123.13 on 13 Oct 2026: Pound Sterling Live
  12. Tesla deliveries and share prices: Tesla annual reports and public market data (year-end closes, split-adjusted)

Sum-of-the-parts figures are Mika Securities’ own calculations from the sources above and are approximate.

Disclaimer: This article is for education and general information only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the capital market involves risk, including the loss of capital; past performance, including the Tesla example, does not guarantee future results. Please do your own research or consult a qualified adviser before investing. [DISCLOSURE: state whether Mika Securities, its directors or the author hold BRAC Bank shares.]

As Bangladesh emerges from years of economic turmoil, a rare combination of circumstances is enabling the country’s capital market to roar back to life. Thanks to structural reforms, improving external balances, and a stabilizing macroeconomic environment, the conditions for a long-awaited bull run are finally coming together. For investors who are willing to look past short-term fluctuations, this might be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

A reform-driven stability

For years, market dynamics were suppressed and investor confidence was weakened by strict administrative controls on stock prices, interest rates, and exchange rates. But since the middle of 2024, the interim government has been implementing significant policy changes that have begun to buck that trend.
The benchmark for business Google News Subscribe to The Business Standard’s Google news channel to stay up to date.

Results are starting to emerge from Bangladesh Bank’s stringent monetary tightening and market-based reforms. Inflation peaked in July 2024 at 11.66%, but it has since dropped to 8.5% as of June 2025, with potential for further growth. Foreign reserves have grown from $18.6 billion to roughly $25 billion, and the local currency has stabilized after years of volatility.

By updating mutual fund and listing regulations through the formation of task forces and focus groups with practitioners and experts, the BSEC has accelerated market governance reforms in the interim. Important changes have been made to increase transparency and protect investors, including allowing conversions from closed-end to open-end funds, imposing stricter deadlines for dividend transfers, requiring independent directors for listings, and imposing penalties for violations of shareholding laws.

A rise in the balance of payments indicates external stability.

Bangladesh’s external situation has significantly improved. The overall balance of payments deficit dropped from $5.89 billion to $1.15 billion in May 2025. The current account deficit dropped by an astounding 85% in the first nine months of FY25, from $4.4 billion to just $659 million.

Exports and remittances, the two primary sources of foreign exchange inflows, are becoming more powerful. Between July 2024 and March 2025, remittances rose by nearly 28%, and in May 2025, exports reached an 11-month high of $4.74 billion. These debt-free inflows are significantly cushioning the economy.

A decline in interest rates is anticipated.

Bangladesh Bank has been gradually shifting from a tight monetary stance to growth-supportive policies while still managing inflation risks, as evidenced by recent actions like the purchase of US dollars, targeted liquidity injections in weaker banks, and a 50 basis point reduction in the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate.

As yields fall from their historical highs, the conditions are favorable for an optimistic response from equity markets.

Equities: Undervalued and prepared for repricing

Due to investors’ collective memory of the preceding four years, which were only marked by steep market declines and ongoing uncertainty, equity valuations are incredibly low. The benchmark index, which remains at 5,100, reflects sentiment more than fundamentals. However, many high-quality companies—those with strong governance, low leverage, and solid earnings capacity—are quietly strengthening their positions as their weaker peers falter.

Stocks are poised for a re-rating, with valuations at multi-year lows and earnings momentum increasing. The initial signs are already visible:

  • High-quality companies are proving resilient in the face of macroeconomic difficulties.
  • Treasury yields have been historically high, but as monetary easing begins, they are now falling.
  • The central bank’s targeted liquidity injections are making all asset classes more stable.

Before an apparent economic recovery, markets usually rise. If you wait for perfect macro clarity, you might miss the most pronounced part of the upturn.

A dual opportunity: Bonds and stocks in line

It is rare for fixed income and stocks to offer appealing opportunities simultaneously. Nonetheless, longer-term government treasuries with yields above 12% are now eligible for capital gains as interest rates begin to drop. On the other hand, stocks are still priced for pessimism even though the fundamentals are improving.

Asset allocators have a rare chance to rebalance their portfolios toward growth assets at incredibly enticing entry points. A strategic allocation to long-duration bonds along with selective equity exposure could soon yield high risk-adjusted returns.

Why it’s critical to take action immediately

Numerous enduring economic issues, including non-performing loans, a waning desire for private investment, and the vulnerability of the banking industry, have yet to be resolved by policymakers. Although these risks are real, they are growing increasingly disparate. While most of the negative news is already factored into current equity valuations, upside catalysts that have not yet been reflected in price include a dovish central bank stance, improving fiscal health, and corporate resilience.

The chance to purchase high-quality assets at distressed prices is not likely to persist indefinitely. When market sentiment shifts, which it will eventually, early investors will benefit the most. This is not merely an opportunity; it is a test of conviction.

A chance for future generations

Bangladesh’s capital market has long been regarded with suspicion and disregard. But as capital moves from stagnation to growth, the next cycle could be revolutionary. It is clear that in order to fully capitalize on this momentous occasion, institutional investors and responsible asset managers must act now with discipline and focus.

Those who recognize opportunities when others are paralyzed by fear are the most successful investors. Things are changing in Bangladesh. The most transformative wealth will be produced by those with the foresight to act early.